They won’t try to invade Iran. Its too big, is geographically complicated and is a rather powerful nation (militarily and also in terms of it’s proximity to important oil refineries which are critical to keeping global oil prices at a politically expedient price level in the western world). Additionally, Europe will be reluctant not because it cares about Iranians but because of the fear of having to deal with even more refugees. In this sad state of affairs, it is the fear of refugees from nations torn up by the west itself which is proving to be the greatest bulwark against another intervention. Another war of intervention will break Europe up — the EU will end when the innocent victims of the war march northwards escaping the torments unleashed by the governments of western people.
What I suspect will happen is that the US will sanction Iran heavily to cripple much of the state, and then supply and pay militias to control sections of that vast country aided by illegal American occupation and CIA operatives like they are doing in Kurdish Syria beyond the Euphrates. Israel will be happy to be involved in this type of controlled disintegration of Iran as they work to weaken the country over time. The trouble is that for all of the anxieties that Qatar, the UAE and Iraq have with Iran, a strongish Iran helps control and repress as did Saddam and Gaddafi all the potential militias in that territory. A disintegrated Iran with all the territory and natural wealth within it will mushroom insurgencies that will make the horrors of Iraq and Libya seem like a joke. And they will spread more widely. Israel itself will be consumed in the chaos as will the other neighboring states. Saudi Arabia too will struggle though it maintains an irrational fear of Iran which has pushed it into an opportunistic alliance with Israel at the expense of the Palestinians. For this reason, the plan to sabotage Iran will meet resistance even from some of Iran’s detractors. Additionally, with all the jostling between the US and China over trade: I can see China and Russia blocking any resolutions on Iran in the Security Council. If the west led by America once more endeavors to overrule the Security Council at the UN as they did with Iraq and Libya by unilateral actions, the international order which really benefits the west itself will more rapidly crumble. Nations will revert to regional blocs for security, developing economic and political ties to get around and away from the financial and political system built around the economy and polity of the US and the wider west. This will only breed more desparation on the part of empire.
But we will see. For the Iranians’ sakes and eventually all the rest of us, I hope this war never comes as it will most likely begin a new era of violence which will dwarf the gross atrocities we have already been witnesses of in just the past 20 years.
